That’s over 2 billion bottles more than in 2011 with growth driven primarily by sparkling wines and emerging markets. With a 7.7 percent share of global wine consumption, sparkling wines grew at a rate of 4.12 percent between 2007 and 2011, compared with 2.72 percent for still wines. This rate should increase to 8.52 percent between 2012 and 2016, predicts the IWSR, due mainly to rising consumption in Germany, France, Russia and the United States.
In geographical terms, obviously China is a major driving force behind increasing consumption but it is not alone: the United States, Russia and Australia are also growing apace with Australia having entered the top ten wine consumer countries, ahead of Rumania, and China now ranking 5th. Between 2007 and 2011, these four countries combined witnessed growth of 1.55 billion bottles. Conversely, Europe is still in decline – falling consumption in the major producer countries is now compounded by drops in Germany and the United Kingdom which for the first time in 15 years saw consumption fall between 2007 and 2011.
At global level, red wine remains the number one category with a 54.7 percent share of still wines in 2011 and it is poised to rise again between 2011 and 2016; according to the IWSR, we can expect to see a 9.1 percent increase, due mainly to China, whilst white wines are likely to gain just 2.75 percent over the same period. The growth rate for rosé wines is expected to be somewhere between the two, +7.58 percent according to the IWSR.
Premiumisation is also a growing trend with sales of wines retailing for $10 and above surging by 12.59 percent between 2007 and 2011. Again China, joined by the US and Canada, leads the way. The good news for the wine industry is that this trend is set to continue with a staggering 29.93 percent increase expected between 2011 and 2016, whilst at the same time bottles retailing for between $5 and $10 should rise by 9.99 percent. Growth for wines selling for less than $5 is predicted to come in at 2.77 percent.
Rising consumption has led to increased global trade in wine and 27 percent of all wines consumed are now imported. Imports are currently growing at a faster rate than overall consumption (7.92 percent compared with 2.83 percent). France has benefited significantly from this trend and is still the leading exporter country by value. Spain and Italy also play a lead role but have struggled to achieve value growth on a par with volume increases. A similar fate has awaited Australian wines (+13.3 percent by volume/-20.94 percent by value) whilst Chile has successfully encouraged its consumers to trade up with value increases reaching 33 percent and volume consignments up by ‘just’ 8 percent.
An exciting backdrop indeed for the upcoming Vinexpo show in Bordeaux which takes place from June 16 to 20, 2013.